Mart Laar blog

Recent events in Georgia have shocked many people, who welcomed years ago „The Rose revolution” and had supported the Georgia’s turn to West, its radical reforms and build-up of democracy. Their hopes were badly hurt as a result of violent demonstrations and use of force against them, closure of independent media and declaration of emergency situation. Georgia’s international image and specially President Mikhail Saakashvili’s personal reputation was seriously damaged as a result of all this. Warnings of Saakashvilis „uncontrolled temper” and unpredictable decisions suddenly looked to become true.


The situation in Georgia nevetheless is more complicated. Looking to it from outside, it is easy to get a wrong or too simplified picture. I visited Georgia on last weekend, met both from people from government and outside it. So these are some of my impressions. First of all the decisions on emergency situation was not passed by President alone, but by President Council, where nearly all Georgia’s political leaders, included speaker Nino Burjanadze took part. So when it was mistake, then it was common mistake. It’s clear that the government overreacted and made mistakes, but from other side it must be recognized, that the activities of some opposition politicians, speacially oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili were not responsible either. Everything was made to provoke government to use force and unfortunately authorities fell to the trap. The situation in Tbilisi to the evening of 7 November was so near to larger conflict that probably only thanks to the declaration on emergency situation, Georgia avoided loss of lives. Most important was, that the government coalition did not answered to opposition demonstrations with demonstrations of their supporters, calming so the situation down.

The evening of 7.November was clearly low-point for Georgia during this millennium. From this on, the situation has started to improve – slower as supporters of Georgia want, but with every day with better speed. The Western States were first of all ready to act quickly, condemning the step back from democracy and suggesting Georgia to abolish the emergency situation and start negotiations with opposition with the goal to find political solution to the conflict. At the same time countradictory to some expectactions Georgia was not left alone, it was not isolated. This helped Georgian leaders to calm down, analyze the situation and move forward.


First positive step in positive direction was President Saakashvili’s announcement that he is holding snap president elections on January 5, 2008. With this the politics moved back from the streets to election polls and hopefully it stays there at least till elections. The referendum on time of parliament elections will be held at the same time. Next step forward was the start of negotiations with opposition on changes in election code, which by have have lead to positive results. Even more important was decision to lift emergency situation in Georgia from 16.November 2007.


The Georgian authorities must nevertheless understand that these are only first steps toward normalization of situation and restoration of democracy. Freedom of media must be restored. Opposition must be granted all possibilities to participate and campaigne in elections without fear. The cooperation and negotiatons with opposition must continue, the government must recognize, that the opposition politicians are not Russian spies or collaborators. From the other side opposition must act responsibly aswell. Calls for violence and overthrow of „fascist regime” must be canceled. It will be practical for democratic opposition to make clear cut between themselves and people like Okruashvili or Patarkatsishvili. Both sides must make absolutely clear, that they recognize results of democratic elections, whatever these would be. Recent calls from part of opposition on new demonstrations are counterproductive and can be lead to new clashes. Georgians must understand, that when the politics will be moved to the streets, Georgia’s future will be under serious doubt. It looks that some opposition politicians are just afraid of real elections, happily other parts of it are looking for solutions. 


Georgian history would ofcourse not end with President elections. Way to democracy would not be easy and short. Will it be succesfull, it depends mostly from Georgian’s themselves. We can try only to share our experiences from the same road and to give good advice. It is important also to move away Russia’s pressure on Georgia and not let anybody to intervene to Georgia’s interial affairs. It must be made absolutely clear that no country is having right to block Georgia’s integration with European structures. Georgia is not lost, it’s future lies in the hand of Georgia’s people. 


On 9.November 1989 the Wall went down. This was great day not only for Germany but all World – now it was clear, that the evil empire would be finished in near future. I spent this year this day in Berlin. It did not look so, that too many people remembered this day. There were candles on the graves of victims of Wall, some events, but nothing extraordinary. Logical result of such ignorance is seen in German newspaper “Die Welt” 10.november, where is described study made among German students from both former Western and Eastern Germany 15-17 age. It was schocking to see how few young people knew on German history. Only 48,6% of students found, that Eastern-Germany was a dictature, 28,1 thought that not. The DDR was for young people funny but not dangerous system, STASi intelligence agency as any other and nearly 20% thought, the “The Wall” was build by West. There is not so much to comment. When the World continues not to condemn the communist crimes at the same way how nazi crimes are condemned, real picture from the past will never prevail.

On one of the most sad days in the World History – on 90th anniversary of so called October Revolution in Russia 1917 – the just launched European Council of Foreign Policy launched its “Power audit” on European Russian policy, which crititizes current situation in Europe, which allows Russia to split Europe and play some parts of it against anothers. The only solution for Europe is to develope common foreign and security policy, guaranteeing so more fruitful relations with its big neighbour. At the same time we must mourn today more than 100 million killed people – sad result of communism – and even more hundred millions tortured, jailed, repressed people in different countries. Any other teaching in the World has resulted with such massive killing as communism. It’s time to condemn it at the same way how the World have done with “killing machine on the second place” – fashism.  

Yesterday the documentary from Jim and Maureen Tusty was presented first time in Canada, Toronto on Estdoc Festival. The audience received the movie with standing ovations. This is actually not a suprise. Tusty’s documentary describes very well the fate of Estonia between nazi ja communist dictatorships, the fight against the tyranny and victory, achieved during the “singing revolution”. This is extraordinary and true story, which is at the same time very moving. In some weeks “Singing revolution” will arrive cinemas across the United States. When You want to see this extraordinary movie in Your cinemas, please register in the homepage of the documentary. It is really worth to see it.

In the recent World Bank study “Doing Business 2008″ Georgia which some years ago was on 122th position has raised to 18. place, immadiately after Estonia. This is best proof, that radical liberal reforms have really worked in Georgia. Georgia has liberalized its economy, moved away from lot of regulations, fought down corruption, introduced flat rate 12% tax, abolished most of custom tariffs. This has created real economic boom in Georgia, bringing in nearly 3 billion USD investments this year. It is easier to do business in Georgia than in any other transition country except Estonia. Looking on so called “developed” countries, Germany is on the same list on 20th, France 31th, Italy on 53th position. Georgia is really now in the mind of business.

As one of the lastest in the Black Sea region Bulgaria is after Russia, Ukraine, Georgia and Romania moving to the flat tax, introducing it on the lowest level in the World – to 10 percent. Ruling socialist-lead coalition has soon adopted ta plan and it is now under discussion in Parliament with other legislation connected with 2008 budget. This bold move is following last years radical tax cut, when Bulgaria slashed its corporate income tax to flat 10 percent. IMF issued its usual warnings, that such cuts are very bad as they threaten the balance of budget. Results of first year low corporate tax had proved opposite – earnings from it have been  more as 40 higher  as predicted.  This has encouraged  to  do the same with personal income tax.  Bulgarias example proves  once again, tax low taxes boost economic growth and hit hardly informal or grey sector.  Meeting with the Prime Minister Stanishev I encouraged him to continue on the radical way of reforms, boosting so Bulgarias growth and recovery. It was good to see, that on the flat tax, the Prime Minister did not needed actually encouragement – he has made its decision and keeps it. So we can wish all the best.

Estonia is one of the most succesfull transition countries. From absolute misery in 1992 we have moved significantly nearer to the average European living standards in 2007, passing soon the first Western-European country – Portugal. Lot of people have asked from me how we did it. I tried to explaine this in my lecture in Heritage Foundation some weeks ago. When You are interested in it, You can read it from Heritage homepage. To put is shortly – most important is to cut yourself from communist past. When You can do this, you will be succesfull.

Communism’s fall gave the nations of the former Soviet bloc a chance to turn towards democracy, a market economy, and the rule of law. Some countries cut ties decisively with the communist past; others were less successful; a few failed catastrophically.

Moldova and Georgia were in the last category until recently. Their economic and political failures were in large part due to secessionist movements — actively supported by Russia — that aimed at keeping both countries in the Kremlin’s “sphere of influence.” When bloody conflicts erupted in Transdnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, Russia turned its military presence into “peacekeeping” forces as a means of maintaining control.

It has long been feared that these so-called “frozen conflicts” could suddenly turn hot. Not only has this not happened, but we can now talk of solutions, as both Georgia and Moldova have begun to achieve breakthroughs to a market economy and democracy. The European Union’s “neighborhood policy” has also helped.

The starting point for these developments was Georgia’s “Rose Revolution” three years ago. From coming perilously close to being a failed state, Georgia has turned towards the West. The success of the various “color revolutions” in former Soviet-bloc countries also ignited change in Moldova, where President Vladimir Voronin launched reforms aimed at moving closer to the EU. These changes sparked new initiatives in Georgia and in Moldova to restore, peacefully, their territorial integrity.

Estonia’s experience suggests how Georgia and Moldova should shape their policies vis-a-vis Russia. When Estonia gained independence in 1991, Moscow sought to portray Estonia as a land with huge economic problems, unsuitable for investment. Estonia was indeed poor, and its main exports were scrap metal and timber, but its economy was growing.

Russia supported a so-called “autonomy-movement” in northeast Estonia, which is populated mostly by ethnic Russians who settled there during Soviet times. When Estonia resisted, Russia imposed sanctions and cut off gas supplies. The few Estonian products allowed into Russia were heavily taxed, and Russia even threatened military intervention.

But Estonia kept its nerve. Russian sanctions actually helped Estonia redirect its economy westward. Meanwhile, Western Europe did its utmost to integrate the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — while seeking to avoid conflict with Russia. A 1994 free-trade treaty with the EU enabled Estonian products to find new markets, and Estonia eventually became one of the most successful postcommunist transition countries, joining the EU and NATO in 2004.

When Georgia gained independence in 1991, it did not receive the same sort of help from Western Europe. True, Georgia seemed a less appealing partner than the Baltic states. The 1990′s were marked by coups, countercoups, and civil wars, with two regions — Abkhazia and South Ossetia — essentially breaking away with Russian support.

The country has done its best to live down it dismal past. Since the Rose Revolution, the economy has been reformed, the army has been strengthened, and the country’s leadership is young, dynamic, and eager to move the country forward.

Georgia’s 12 percent flat-rate income tax — probably the lowest in the world — has boosted the national budget. The government has raised pensions and increased social support. Corruption is decreasing and judicial reform has started. The economy grew by 8 percent in 2005 and more than 10 percent in 2006.

Georgia has tried to defuse tensions over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but Russia accuses Georgia of aggression and ethnic cleansing. Its main goal is to inhibit Western support for Georgia, and to prevent reconciliation with the breakaway regions.

Russia, and to some extent the United States, are the powers that matter in Georgia. Europe must show that it matters, too. Estonia demonstrated — at independence and again during the recent crisis over the movement of a Soviet-era memorial — that with determination and strong support, Russian pressure can be resisted.

Europe must understand that Georgia does not need humanitarian aid, but trade. Just as a free-trade deal with Europe allowed Estonia to find new markets, it can be the means through which Georgians are able to help themselves.

Georgia can reasonably hope that it will achieve real independence, but what about Moldova, Europe’s poorest country and one threatened by Russia more than the Estonians — or, indeed, the Georgians — ever were?

Moldova’s lack of success at reform was partly the result of Russian-supported secessionist movements. It made a wretched start at independence when the industrial region of Transdnistria — populated by Russian and Ukrainian speakers who feared that the majority of Moldovans, who are of Romanian descent, planned closer ties with Romania — declared independence. Civil war followed, and in 1992 Russian troops entered Transdnistria, where they remain. Transdnistria’s independence has never been recognized, either by Moldova or internationally. It is said to be lawless and corrupt.

Moldova is deeply in debt, unemployment is high, and its once well-regarded wine industry is in decline. Russia occasionally cuts off its gas, and many of its four million people have left the country.

Only Russia can solve the problem. Moldovan officials have made five fruitless visits to Moscow to plead with President Vladimir Putin to explore a solution and withdraw Russian troops. A desperate Voronin has turned for help to the EU’s “border assistance mission,” but an EU initiative would need Russian cooperation.

Unfortunately, the West appears to lack up-to-date knowledge about the situation in Moldova. In April, for example, the EU and the US too learned of a proposed peace deal only from a leaked report in Germany. That deal would appear to favor Russia, with Moldova recognizing Transdnistria as a legitimate entity. If Russia has trumped the West, the precedent for Georgia and other weak post-Soviet states would be a dire one.

8-10.06 the conference was held in Japan on experiences of Russian neighbours on relations with Russia. Representatives of Russia were invited to the conference too, but they did not arrive. So main discussion was held between Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Finnish, Norwegian and Japanies representatives. Lot of attention was given to the Russia’s new weapon – energy. Main message of the conference was get rid from illusions – Russia is moving away from democracy, is having clear goal to restore lost empire and only way to stop this kind of development is to develop cooperation not only between countries bordering with Russia, but inside European Union and between G-7. Russia’s place is not in this group, the democracies are not threatening eachother with nuclear missiles as Russia just did. To stop Russia’s attempts to restore its empire is best help for Russian people, because as always in the history they must at the end pay highest price for imperialistic aspirations of their leaders. There was very active interest in Japan toward the conference and there are good hope, that this will become tradition.

During last days World news agencies have reported riots and vandalism in Estonian capital Tallinn in connection with removal of Soviet occupation monument from one Central square to war-cemetary. To understand why Estonians – as Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles and others lived under communism – do not like communist occupation, we must look back how the II War World started and how Estonia got occupied by Soviet Union.

On August 23, 1939 so called Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was signed in Moscow between Nazi-Germany and Communist-Russia.  The treaty was supplemented by a secret protocol that contained an agreement between Hitler and Stalin to carve up Eastern Europe into spheres of influence.  Finland, Estonia, and Latvia (and, later, Lithuania) were incorporated into the Soviet sphere.  Poland was divided between Hitler and Stalin, and the Soviet interest in Bessarabia was recognized. Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was the perfect blueprint for aggression that constituted a license for Hitler’s and Stalin’s war against much of Europe.  Each of the signatories was now free to assault its neighbors without hindrance from the other.  On September 1, 1939, Hitler invaded Poland and World War II started.  On September 17^th, Red Army troops poured across the Polish border and completed the conquest.  Poland capitulated on October 4, 1939, and was divided between the two aggressors.  The occupation of Poland by both Nazis and Soviets provided the rest of the world with stark evidence of the terror that totalitarian powers were capable of inflicting.   In late September 1939, the Soviet Union began exercising liberties it had been granted by Hitler in the Baltics.  First, it issued an ultimatum to Estonia to sign a treaty allowing the deployment of Soviet military troops on Estonian soil.  Although most of the population wanted to reject the Soviet demands, Estonian political leaders decided in favor of the peaceful solution.  After signing the treaty, the Red Army marched into Estonia in October 1939, occupying bases allotted to it and promising not to harm the independence of Estonia.  In succeeding months the Soviet Union signed analogous pacts with Lithuania and Latvia.
 

Finland, however, rebuffed Soviet demands and defended its decision in the Winter War of 1939-40.  Despite its heavy territorial and human losses, Finland succeeded in retaining its national independence.  Finland thereby avoided the fate of the Baltic States and kept its place in the Western World.  In June 1940, the Baltic countries were completely occupied.  Under Soviet orchestration and the protection of Soviet tanks, legal governments were replaced by Soviet puppet governments.  After Soviet-style ‘elections’ in which all candidates except Communists were removed from the ballots, Baltic countries ‘voluntarily’ joined the Soviet Union.  Most Western states never recognized the legality of the incorporation of the Baltic States into the Soviet Union.  The Baltic countries were sovietized and massive terror and deportations started. As a result of Soviet occupation only Estonia by-example lost nearly 20% of its pre-war population.
 

When in 1941 the war broke out between former allies Hitler and Stalin, the Baltic countries were occupied by Nazi-Germany. Attempts to restore independence failed. The next attempt was made in September 1944 when German forces started to retreat from Estonia. On 18 September 1944 Estonian underground started uprising in Tallinn, declaring Estonian Republic restored, build the legal government under leadership of Otto Tief and raised after the fights with German units Estonian national flag over Estonian capital. Unfortunately the Soviet’s did not recognized the Estonian government. Tallinn was conquered on 22. September, members of government were arrested and sentenced, some of them were shot, other send to GULAG. No battles with German forces were held during the “liberation” of Tallinn in 22.September 1944. Tallinn was “liberated” from legal Estonian government. The soldiers of the Red Army tore down Estonian state symbol, the Estonian blue-black-white tricolour, and not the Nazi flag, from the tower of Toompea Castle. Red Terror, deportations and violence started with the new strength.
 

In this context it is clear that for Estonia as for other Central and Eastern European nations the end of Nazi occupation was connected with the (re)start of Soviet occupation. Estonia is a free and democratic state, where the glorification or rebirth of fascism is unthinkable. At the same time the crimes of communism must be condemned exactly at the same way as the crimes of Nazism. It is sad that Russia has not yet found strength to deal with its history, declare Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact null and avoid and apologize for the losses and terror created by this. German government has done this soon years ago.
 

Russia’s understanding of history is demonstrated by the propaganda war held against Estonia in connection with so called Bronze-soldier monument in Tallinn. This monument for “liberators” of Tallinn from Estonian national government was during the Soviet occupation one of the most hated monuments in Estonia. In 1946 it was actually blown up by Estonian resistance-fighters. The political passions surrounding this monument prove that it is misplaced in one of the city’s central squares. It is unsuitable in relation to the victims of the war and fallen. And it is not correct to the independent Republic of Estonia and people who almost fifty years suffered under the Soviet occupation.
When You want know more on Nazi and Soviet occupation, I suggest to visit the sites of international commission on history of Estonia: http://www.historycommission.ee/temp/index.htm

or site of Estonian Parliament commission

http://www.just.ee/orb.aw/class=file/action=preview/id=12709/TheWhiteBook.pdf