Mart Laar blog

Europe is really having very short memory. After the Russian aggression against Georgia on 8.august 2008 European leaders stand up and promised to make to Russia absolutely clear, that such of behavior could not be tolerated in Europe. To demonstrate that they are serious with this message, Europe decided to cancel – or postpone as it was officially said – the negotiations with Moscow on a new “Partnership and Cooperation Agreement”. Europe insisted that Russia must obey a six-point ceasefire deal, which ended the Georgia war on Aug 12, before any talks on the partnership agreement can start again. The restart of negotiations depended on Russian compliance with those commitments that it made in August.
 

Unfortunately the Russia has not done this. It has actually broken most of points of the ceasefire deal by failing by example to withdraw its forces to their pre-war positions. Russian troops have left most of the so called buffer-zone, but is still occupying parts of territories controlled by Georgia till the start of the military conflict. European observers are not having access to the territories of South-Ossetia and Abkhazia, as a result of this the provocations, bombings and conflicts are continuing in the border area. Russia is having significantly more troops on the territory as before the conflict.
 

Some European leaders have nevertheless decided to close their eyes to all this. They say that Russia is doing everything it´s supposed to do, so it is time to restart the negotiations.  This would amount to a return to “business as usual” and sends a signal that Russia had escaped any lasting diplomatic penalty for invading Georgia. Such of decision would show Russia that aggression pays off, that Europe is incapable of holding a firm line against aggression and that Russia’s neighbors cannot rely on the EU to protect them from Russian bullying. Even as Moscow has declared that it is actually “not so interested” on these negotiations, the restart of the talks would be an important symbol.  Russia would claim a victory if they started, getting signal: “We did it!”
 

This is very bad message not only for Europe but for Russia itself. The war with Georgia has been for Russia both geopolitically and economically very costly. Economist Andrey Illarionov, a former adviser to Vladimir Putin and now an outspoken critic of the Russian authorities, has described the conflict with Georgia as a “geopolitical catastrophe for Russia” since it destroyed the delicate geopolitical balance that Russia established in the South Caucasus over two centuries in alliance with Georgia. It turned Russia also to the conflict with CIS members and Asian countries. Collapse of the Russian stocks after the invasion was dramatic, helping Russia to become “worst performer” during world-wide economic crises. “Victory” over small Georgia has helped Putin to bolster support to its totalitarian policies inside of Russia. When West now accepts such behavior and returns to “business as usual” the democratic forces, protesting against the invasion, would get another hit. These are reasons why Poland, Baltic and most of Nordic countries with Great Britain have opposed the proposal to restart negotiations with Russia. How long they can resist the pressure of “old Europe” will be seen. In this moment it is nevertheless necessary to look back to the history, which teach us that appeasement of aggressor never pays off.   

Recent events in Georgia have shocked many people, who welcomed years ago „The Rose revolution” and had supported the Georgia’s turn to West, its radical reforms and build-up of democracy. Their hopes were badly hurt as a result of violent demonstrations and use of force against them, closure of independent media and declaration of emergency situation. Georgia’s international image and specially President Mikhail Saakashvili’s personal reputation was seriously damaged as a result of all this. Warnings of Saakashvilis „uncontrolled temper” and unpredictable decisions suddenly looked to become true.


The situation in Georgia nevetheless is more complicated. Looking to it from outside, it is easy to get a wrong or too simplified picture. I visited Georgia on last weekend, met both from people from government and outside it. So these are some of my impressions. First of all the decisions on emergency situation was not passed by President alone, but by President Council, where nearly all Georgia’s political leaders, included speaker Nino Burjanadze took part. So when it was mistake, then it was common mistake. It’s clear that the government overreacted and made mistakes, but from other side it must be recognized, that the activities of some opposition politicians, speacially oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili were not responsible either. Everything was made to provoke government to use force and unfortunately authorities fell to the trap. The situation in Tbilisi to the evening of 7 November was so near to larger conflict that probably only thanks to the declaration on emergency situation, Georgia avoided loss of lives. Most important was, that the government coalition did not answered to opposition demonstrations with demonstrations of their supporters, calming so the situation down.

The evening of 7.November was clearly low-point for Georgia during this millennium. From this on, the situation has started to improve – slower as supporters of Georgia want, but with every day with better speed. The Western States were first of all ready to act quickly, condemning the step back from democracy and suggesting Georgia to abolish the emergency situation and start negotiations with opposition with the goal to find political solution to the conflict. At the same time countradictory to some expectactions Georgia was not left alone, it was not isolated. This helped Georgian leaders to calm down, analyze the situation and move forward.


First positive step in positive direction was President Saakashvili’s announcement that he is holding snap president elections on January 5, 2008. With this the politics moved back from the streets to election polls and hopefully it stays there at least till elections. The referendum on time of parliament elections will be held at the same time. Next step forward was the start of negotiations with opposition on changes in election code, which by have have lead to positive results. Even more important was decision to lift emergency situation in Georgia from 16.November 2007.


The Georgian authorities must nevertheless understand that these are only first steps toward normalization of situation and restoration of democracy. Freedom of media must be restored. Opposition must be granted all possibilities to participate and campaigne in elections without fear. The cooperation and negotiatons with opposition must continue, the government must recognize, that the opposition politicians are not Russian spies or collaborators. From the other side opposition must act responsibly aswell. Calls for violence and overthrow of „fascist regime” must be canceled. It will be practical for democratic opposition to make clear cut between themselves and people like Okruashvili or Patarkatsishvili. Both sides must make absolutely clear, that they recognize results of democratic elections, whatever these would be. Recent calls from part of opposition on new demonstrations are counterproductive and can be lead to new clashes. Georgians must understand, that when the politics will be moved to the streets, Georgia’s future will be under serious doubt. It looks that some opposition politicians are just afraid of real elections, happily other parts of it are looking for solutions. 


Georgian history would ofcourse not end with President elections. Way to democracy would not be easy and short. Will it be succesfull, it depends mostly from Georgian’s themselves. We can try only to share our experiences from the same road and to give good advice. It is important also to move away Russia’s pressure on Georgia and not let anybody to intervene to Georgia’s interial affairs. It must be made absolutely clear that no country is having right to block Georgia’s integration with European structures. Georgia is not lost, it’s future lies in the hand of Georgia’s people. 


In the recent World Bank study “Doing Business 2008″ Georgia which some years ago was on 122th position has raised to 18. place, immadiately after Estonia. This is best proof, that radical liberal reforms have really worked in Georgia. Georgia has liberalized its economy, moved away from lot of regulations, fought down corruption, introduced flat rate 12% tax, abolished most of custom tariffs. This has created real economic boom in Georgia, bringing in nearly 3 billion USD investments this year. It is easier to do business in Georgia than in any other transition country except Estonia. Looking on so called “developed” countries, Germany is on the same list on 20th, France 31th, Italy on 53th position. Georgia is really now in the mind of business.

Georgia is a country in Caucasus which is bravely trying to build democracy and market economy in the neighbourhood of big Russia.

I am now in Tbilisi, capital of Georgia. I just finished the premier of Georgian-Russian movie, which probably will never be launched in Russia. This is a very touching movie about war and terror in Tchetshenia – about how the state terror can turn people become terrorist. The name of the movie is “Russian triangle” and I predict to this movie big success in international arena – unfortunately not in Russia.