Communism’s fall gave the nations of the former Soviet bloc a chance to turn towards democracy, a market economy, and the rule of law. Some countries cut ties decisively with the communist past; others were less successful; a few failed catastrophically.
Moldova and Georgia were in the last category until recently. Their economic and political failures were in large part due to secessionist movements — actively supported by Russia — that aimed at keeping both countries in the Kremlin’s “sphere of influence.” When bloody conflicts erupted in Transdnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, Russia turned its military presence into “peacekeeping” forces as a means of maintaining control.
It has long been feared that these so-called “frozen conflicts” could suddenly turn hot. Not only has this not happened, but we can now talk of solutions, as both Georgia and Moldova have begun to achieve breakthroughs to a market economy and democracy. The European Union’s “neighborhood policy” has also helped.
The starting point for these developments was Georgia’s “Rose Revolution” three years ago. From coming perilously close to being a failed state, Georgia has turned towards the West. The success of the various “color revolutions” in former Soviet-bloc countries also ignited change in Moldova, where President Vladimir Voronin launched reforms aimed at moving closer to the EU. These changes sparked new initiatives in Georgia and in Moldova to restore, peacefully, their territorial integrity.
Estonia’s experience suggests how Georgia and Moldova should shape their policies vis-a-vis Russia. When Estonia gained independence in 1991, Moscow sought to portray Estonia as a land with huge economic problems, unsuitable for investment. Estonia was indeed poor, and its main exports were scrap metal and timber, but its economy was growing.
Russia supported a so-called “autonomy-movement” in northeast Estonia, which is populated mostly by ethnic Russians who settled there during Soviet times. When Estonia resisted, Russia imposed sanctions and cut off gas supplies. The few Estonian products allowed into Russia were heavily taxed, and Russia even threatened military intervention.
But Estonia kept its nerve. Russian sanctions actually helped Estonia redirect its economy westward. Meanwhile, Western Europe did its utmost to integrate the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — while seeking to avoid conflict with Russia. A 1994 free-trade treaty with the EU enabled Estonian products to find new markets, and Estonia eventually became one of the most successful postcommunist transition countries, joining the EU and NATO in 2004.
When Georgia gained independence in 1991, it did not receive the same sort of help from Western Europe. True, Georgia seemed a less appealing partner than the Baltic states. The 1990′s were marked by coups, countercoups, and civil wars, with two regions — Abkhazia and South Ossetia — essentially breaking away with Russian support.
The country has done its best to live down it dismal past. Since the Rose Revolution, the economy has been reformed, the army has been strengthened, and the country’s leadership is young, dynamic, and eager to move the country forward.
Georgia’s 12 percent flat-rate income tax — probably the lowest in the world — has boosted the national budget. The government has raised pensions and increased social support. Corruption is decreasing and judicial reform has started. The economy grew by 8 percent in 2005 and more than 10 percent in 2006.
Georgia has tried to defuse tensions over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but Russia accuses Georgia of aggression and ethnic cleansing. Its main goal is to inhibit Western support for Georgia, and to prevent reconciliation with the breakaway regions.
Russia, and to some extent the United States, are the powers that matter in Georgia. Europe must show that it matters, too. Estonia demonstrated — at independence and again during the recent crisis over the movement of a Soviet-era memorial — that with determination and strong support, Russian pressure can be resisted.
Europe must understand that Georgia does not need humanitarian aid, but trade. Just as a free-trade deal with Europe allowed Estonia to find new markets, it can be the means through which Georgians are able to help themselves.
Georgia can reasonably hope that it will achieve real independence, but what about Moldova, Europe’s poorest country and one threatened by Russia more than the Estonians — or, indeed, the Georgians — ever were?
Moldova’s lack of success at reform was partly the result of Russian-supported secessionist movements. It made a wretched start at independence when the industrial region of Transdnistria — populated by Russian and Ukrainian speakers who feared that the majority of Moldovans, who are of Romanian descent, planned closer ties with Romania — declared independence. Civil war followed, and in 1992 Russian troops entered Transdnistria, where they remain. Transdnistria’s independence has never been recognized, either by Moldova or internationally. It is said to be lawless and corrupt.
Moldova is deeply in debt, unemployment is high, and its once well-regarded wine industry is in decline. Russia occasionally cuts off its gas, and many of its four million people have left the country.
Only Russia can solve the problem. Moldovan officials have made five fruitless visits to Moscow to plead with President Vladimir Putin to explore a solution and withdraw Russian troops. A desperate Voronin has turned for help to the EU’s “border assistance mission,” but an EU initiative would need Russian cooperation.
Unfortunately, the West appears to lack up-to-date knowledge about the situation in Moldova. In April, for example, the EU and the US too learned of a proposed peace deal only from a leaked report in Germany. That deal would appear to favor Russia, with Moldova recognizing Transdnistria as a legitimate entity. If Russia has trumped the West, the precedent for Georgia and other weak post-Soviet states would be a dire one.
[...] Read the whole thing. [...]
Трусливые историки
Все эти годы интеграция общества проводилась в антиинтеграционном правовом поле и была пропитана духом реэмиграции. Как отмечал Март Лаар: “Мы надеялись, что неэстонцы уедут, но они не уехали”, “эстонские правительства поддерживали реэмиграцию колонистов назад на историческую родину”.
Законы фактически стали главным тормозом интеграционного процесса. Как отмечал Шарль Монтескье, “жестокость законов препятствует их соблюдению”. Чтобы процесс интеграции как-то продвинуть вперед, приходилось постоянно вносить в них поправки. Однако эти полумеры ни к чему не привели, а наоборот, обострили ситуацию и довели дело до конфликта. Не следует забывать, что при конфликте жизни с политикой жизнь побеждает!
Нужны новые законы, которые бы регулировали национальную политику. Но, к сожалению, сегодня в Рийгикогу нет политических сил, способных это сделать.
В отличие от политиков любой водитель знает, что невозможно вести машину, если все время смотреть в зеркало заднего обзора. История уже перестает быть наукой, ее превращают в инструмент политики. Ее пишут и переписывают трусливые историки по заказу правящих партий. Мы все время живем прошлым, а не настоящим. Если мы раньше были рабами коммунизма, то теперь все больше превращаемся в системных рабов. Время идет, а мы, по выражению Петра Чаадаева, “растем, но не зреем”.
Рафик Григорян, “Вести Дня”
10 июля 2007 23:32
If it is of any interst to you, please have a look at a posting called “Moldova deals again?” regarding a possible Moldovan leadership understanding of how and what for they should deal with Moldovan problems in relation to Europe-Russia dialogue at http://freemoldova.blogspot.com/
Your comments on Moldova and Georgia were interesting to read. They reflect the views of many Moldovans, who, unfortunately are not part of the decision-making chain. These Molodvan intelectuals read your article/posting with pleasure, however many wondered if decisions makers read them at all…
In private discussions a group of people always mentioned and still mentions Estonia, Latvija and Lithuania’s examples of steadiness in implementing national goals and interests. Unfortunately such steadiness is not yet available in official Moldova, but there is hope.
Thank you.
[...] Mart Laar, Estonia’s former prime minister, writes about certain countries’ successes and failures in parting with the Communist past. Share This [...]
I’m hope Estonia doesn’t give up in the way to freedom and prosperity. Your home country is living proof of up-and-running free economy and flat taxes rate. I hope Poland in few years make economy free too.
Mr. Laar go ahead and don’t give up
Hi! I’m a Swedish classical liberal who just found my way to your blog.
I wish to say that the Estonian strive for true freedom after your indepenence has really caught my interest. My impression is that most younger Swedes are not very familiar with the history of Estonia. Many Swedish liberals are now turning an eye towards the Estonian wonder, the transition from slavery under Soviet communism to a truly free society.
The very best regards from Sweden.
I apologize for my lousy english.
I just wanna say that I admire your work for liberty and hope that some day my country Sweden also will embrace the values of free market and liberty.
А почему ты не пишешь на своём родном языке?
Dear Rafik!
Not all historians are cowards. I wrote my first samizdat book in 1991 – under wrong name ofcourse on battles in Estonia 1944 – and I am not changed my views on topic, just knowing now more facts. And without back-mirror only crazy goes to drive – when You deny your past, You could not have future.
Dear Russian friends!
My blog is in two languages, in Estonia and English. So please be so kind and accept that my answers are in English. But You are absolutely welcomed to my blog and I am ready to answer Your questions – even when I threatened with NKVD.
Dear Mr. Laar,
Sorry for my comment, with sincere respect to you, but I have to say that. All blogers as you said”..absolutely welcomed on your blog” unfortunately I’ve disscovered you do not have courage to respect your guest your own fellow citizens RUSSIAN nationality and face other people oppinion. This is very sad for the politician of your caliber. For you if person russian nationality, you must label him as a NKVD.
Dear Mr. Laar do you know difference between RUSSIAN, COMMUNIST and CHEKIST?
NKVD or COMMUNIST this is not a nationality this the way how to some cowards (estonians to) make their income and used their enermous power against their neighbours and etc.
RUSSIANs this is a nation with a very rich and sad history and courage to defeat their enemies CHEKA-COMMUNIST that occupied their country since 1917 until 1991.
Also RUSSIAN nationality contributet a lot to liberate ESTONIA from CHEKA-KOMMUNIST.
And I strongly believe that You Mr. Laar as a historian and politician must know this and respect RUSSIANS same as your neigbhbors and people who paying taxes to support discriminatory pollicies towards them. Very shame for the modern Estonian government for the way how you treating your own neighbors, residence and citizens of RUSSIAN nationality!!!!!!
Sorry for my probably unwelcome post.
Mr. Laar, You will respond on my post or will ignore?
With warmest regards and nothing personal,
Eduard Vaht
Houston, TX USA
e_vaht@yahoo.com
Интересная статья
OK, let me repeat that… Nuzzle my nocturnal sink Do you want a joke?
Why are there so many Smiths in the phone book? They all have phones.
Just to complete Your interesting report, I invite You to see the views of political borders in my site http://www.pillandia.blogspot.com
Best wishes from Italy!